Hello friends! Before we start with the picks, I’d like to remind you that you can check out Week 6 of the Ocho Fantasy Football Podcast over at offtheteam.com! Just go to the main page and it’ll be right at the top of the list. It’s still an exclusive because the technology is still not up to par, but some people really like hearing me in one speaker & Penguin in the other. All your fantasy football advice will be right there, and all your gambling advice will be right here.
Sunday, October 16
Cincinnati at New England (-9)
Most Bengals fans have come to the realization over the past couple of weeks that their team isn’t on the same level as the five previous Bengal teams that made the playoffs. The Dallas game made it pretty darn obvious, but the Miami game where they only managed to beat the putrid Dolphins 22-7 because they could only score one red zone touchdown made this observer take notice of the failings on offense. It was easy to dismiss the issues in the Steelers & Broncos games because the Bengals typically have problems against good teams. The Jets win is looking worse by the week as that team continues to struggle to do anything right.
Tyler Eifert’s eventual return isn’t going to magically make the offense a hundred times better. Vontaze Burfict’s return didn’t magically make the defense a hundred times better. We were sold this bill of goods by the Bengals & the Cincinnati media, who are now busy carrying Marvin Lewis’s water in response to Stephen A. Smith calling him out on Monday as a poor coach lucky to have his job. The media has to do this because their job is reliant on the Bengals talking to them, but anybody with two eyes can see that Smith & other pundits, myself included, aren’t off-base when we wonder why Lewis still has his job.
(Granted, Smith’s comment that Lewis might still have his job because he’s black was a bit off-base, but the Cincinnati media ignoring the rest of his comments to harp on that is pretty typical.)
To sum up, the Bengals are a mess & the Patriots are going to win this one easy.
Baltimore at NY Giants (-3)
The Ravens are coming off a tough loss at home to Washington, a loss to tough to bear that offensive coordinator Marc Trestman was shown the door. Everybody has already told you this week that the Ravens won the Super Bowl the last time that happened, and let’s face it, it’ll probably happen again because the Ravens became a very lucky franchise once they left Cleveland. After starting 2-0 the Giants have lost three straight and are looking for answers, and I think they’ll still be looking for answers after this week. The Ravens defense should be able to take advantage of Eli Manning and do enough for the team to win in East Rutherford.
Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
The Falcons are currently pulling away with the NFC South division lead, but everybody that’s followed that division over the years knows that the Falcons are due for a meltdown. Happens every year. That being said, the Panthers & Saints both have a measly one win so far this season and need to get things going in order to take advantage of the Falcons’ eventual collapse. Cam Newton coming back should be a big boon for the Panthers, but the Saints are coming off a bye while the Panthers played Monday night. Has Ron Rivera brought this up yet? If not, it’s coming soon.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami
To be fair, the crowd should be pretty big this week because all the Steelers fans in Florida will make the trip down.
Jacksonville at Chicago (-2.5)
The Jags are coming off a bye week after a successful trip to London where they beat the Colts. Since we consider London the home of the Jaguars, it makes sense they would win there. The Bears still aren’t good and I don’t think I’d pick them over anybody other than the Jags, but what the heck. If you’re watching this trash on Sunday I’d suggest going outside instead. Even if it’s raining.
San Francisco at Buffalo (-9)
Things have gone pretty well in Buffalo ever since they fired their offensive coordinator. Three straight wins have the Ryan brothers & everybody else loving life. Well, they were until Jack Eichel went down with an ankle injury, but not everything can ever go swimmingly in Buffalo. The Bills are on a heck of a roll though, and I’m not sold on Colin Kaepernick being the answer to what has troubled the 49ers since Week 1.
Los Angeles at Detroit (-3)
All the Lions games this season have been tremendously close and I expect this one to be no different. The Rams’ rush defense is weak, which Detroit could possibly take advantage of if Theo Riddick is the real deal or if Justin Forsett can automatically mesh with the Lion offense. I’ll take the advice of offtheteam.com poster Old Jay, who reminds us often that the Lions win games they shouldn’t and lose games they should win. Roll with the Rams.
Cleveland at Tennessee (-7)
I’m picking against the Browns every week. The Titans got a nice little victory over Miami last week and should be fine against similar competition this week.
Philadelphia (-2.5) at Washington
The Wentz Wagon went to a screeching halt last week but Vegas is still buying their stock. I was going to go with Washington, who’s on quite the hot streak, until Jordan Reed started having concussion symptoms this week…now I guess the Eagles are the pick.
Kansas City at Oakland (-1)
Oakland’s looked pretty legit so far this season. All of their games have been close, but instead of losing them like they would have in years past, Derek Carr & Amari Cooper & the gang come up big when the game is on the line. The Chiefs have won two games at home and lost two games on the road. It’s a division clash so who really knows what the heck is gonna happen, but I think the Raiders are the smart pick this week.
Atlanta at Seattle (-6.5)
I gotta admit I was very impressed with what the Falcons did last week in Denver, winning in an environment that’s nearly impossible to come out of with a win. They get to try it again this week in Seattle. Why do I think the Seahawks will do what the Broncos couldn’t? Their QB will be healthy & their offense won’t be a complete dumpster fire. So I expect Seattle to win, but I’d take the Falcons and the points because I can see them making it close in garbage time, or the Seahawks having to pull out the win late after struggling for a few minutes.
Dallas at Green Bay (-4.5)
Speaking of teams that impressed me last week, the Cowboys looked darn near unbeatable the way they ran over the Bengals in JerryWorld. Ezekiel Elliott was running all over everybody and everything, Dak Prescott was making plays and didn’t make any major mistakes, and the defense didn’t let the Bengal passing or running game get on track. Can they do the same in Green Bay?
Not quite. But just like in that Falcons/Seahawks matchup, I’m liking the road team to at least keep things close. The Packer offense hasn’t quite been at full power yet this season, their running game has been a mess & I think the Cowboys can take advantage of that to put a scare into the Green Bay faithful.
Indianapolis at Houston (-3)
The Texans looked like absolute trash last week, but they were in Minnesota playing against what I consider to be the best team in the NFL right now. Certainly the best defense. The Colts defense isn’t on the same planet as the Vikings, so Brock Osweiler should be able to throw the ball around and Lamar Miller might even end up finding the end zone. As somebody that has him in way too many fantasy leagues, it would be nice. The Colts have wins over the Bears & Chargers and expect that to impress me. Nah. Go with the Texans this week, heck, they might even be PISSED OFF after that beatdown from last week.
Monday, October 14
NY Jets at Arizona (-7.5)
Hey, you do what you gotta do to get through Monday night. Cardinals should be able to take this one pretty easily with the nice extended vacation giving Carson Palmer a little extra time to heal up. If it’s Drew Stanton…nah, I’m not talking myself into that one again.